November 03, 2010
Two Year Prediction Check

So, while not all of my predictions came true in exactly the order I thought they would, I got pretty close with a lot of them:

41 [Republican Senate] seats [in 2004] means the more radical stuff ... must be modified... 40 seats? Then it'll be down to the media and the Democrats' own incompetence. Not a pretty picture.
And that's when the people will turn on him. Just as in '94, idealistic Americans who simply wanted change will suddenly realize ... the Democrats really are going to raise taxes, are going to go soft on defense, and are going to try socialized medicine and an expansion of the welfare state.
And that's where my side comes in... In the Clinton years, the Democrats were such utter f-ups they went from holding all the cards to being completely out of power at the next election ... Will it be that fast? If we can't hold them back in the Senate, it's a dead certainty, but the mess will be a lot bigger when we get there.
[After Obama takes office] we'll get ... perhaps two years of truly odious attempts to turn the US into New France, followed by our regular (and seemingly preferred) two-party gridlock to take us into the next Presidential cycle.

So, my predictions after a two year course correction?

The economy will now come roaring back. The MSM has been too fascinated with the looming Republican Eschaton to talk much about it, but the financial press has regularly noted corporate profits are up, but instead of expanding they've been sitting on the cash because nobody knew what ridiculous stunt the Democrats would pull next. Now that businesses know all that nonsense is over, they'll begin to expand again.

This will mean that, like Clinton before him, Obama will be in the fortunate position of simply standing on the platform when the train pulls in. The MSM will, of course, hold triumphs in Obama's honor, throw flower pedals in his path, and compose pangyrics to him that'd make Sidonius blush. I think a saint's life will not be too far behind.

So, in other words and in my opinion, barring actions of the Obama administration itself, his second term is now a lock. But there, as they say, is the rub. Clinton is rightly recognized as a, if not the, supreme politician of the 20th century. He was willing to tack wherever the winds blew him, and when they blew right he sailed along with them, and in truth did most of his best work then.

Obama is not Clinton. He has what I believe is a deserved reputation for arrogance, is committed to an ideology that's much further to the left than Clinton's ever was, and has mostly surrounded himself with like-minded friends at best, and combative toadies at worst. If he continues to spin his wheels to the left, or attempts even more egregious (and, at this stage, likely illegal) stunts to get his agenda forced through, then he may not see the end of this term.

To his advantage, he does not have to apologize for Pelosi and Reid anymore. Will it be enough? We'll see...

Posted by scott at November 03, 2010 06:48 AM

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