April 28, 2005
A "Sudden" Turnaround

As expected, media revision about the economy is in full swing:

Economy grows at slowest pace in two years

APR. 28 8:49 A.M. ET Buffeted by rising energy prices and weakened consumer and business spending, the economy grew at an annual rate of just 3.1 percent in the first quarter. It was the slowest pace of expansion in two years, offering fresh evidence that the economy has hit another "soft patch."

That's right folks! Just like in the 1980s, we've suddenly swung from "recession woes" to "when will the current expansion end?" without so much as a whisper about the transition. Even better, back in the 1990s, a "soft patch" of 3% growth was considered ideal (emphasis added):

An analysis of the Federal Reserve’s Humphrey-Hawkins report to Congress and Mr. Greenspan’s public statements indicates that the Fed’s current view is that the long-term sustainable growth rate is a bit better than 3 percent.

Historically, developed nations have averaged a 2% growth rate for nearly 200 years now*. Anything more or less than that is a sign of a business cycle. We don't want growth rates higher than 5%, because this always means a recession is in the wings. A 3.1% growth rate is just about right, especially considering the steps the fed has had to take recently to reign in inflation. This is not the sign of an economy "gone soft", it's a sign of a robust economy with a well-managed money supply and healthy capital markets.

While the article has a Business Week header, it's really an AP report, which I find comforting. I normally expect a trade publication to actually be savvy about the trade it purports to cover, and I found such an obvious liberal MSM spin rather disconcerting. Instead it's just standard wire-service Bush bashing, albeit to me in an unexpected place.

For awhile there it was sort of like having your grandmother walk in, sit down, and then beat you stupid at Halo or something.

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* Not as depressing as it sounds, actually. While the average growth rate of a developed industrial nation has been about 2% for the past two centuries, the average growth rate of a developed agricultural nation (which is what all sophisticated civilizations were until about 1820) was about .01%. When you mix in the explosive growth developing economies experience as they modernize, the picture becomes quite rosy indeed. For further reading, see The Birth of Plenty.

Posted by scott at April 28, 2005 10:09 AM

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Comments

I seem to remember a toy that I had when I was young. It was called a Sit and Spin - basically, a Lazy Susan that you'd sit on and spin yourself around until you were too dizzy to hold on (okay - I was an easily amused kid back then - video games weren't even in the homes yet).

However, the funny thing is that I never could make myself as dizzy as the Bush-bashers manage to with their spins. Personally, I think every economic, social, and security indicator could point to sustained growth, increased peace, and equality for everyone and they'd still be whining about something - how he destroyed their latest event by demonically influencing the weather or some other such nonsense.

Posted by: ronaprhys on April 28, 2005 11:36 AM
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