June 01, 2008
Eighth Sign of the Apocalypse?
Posted by scott at June 01, 2008 10:50 AM
If The Washington Post is running unabashedly positive reports on Iraq, something good must be going on over there, eh? Lately I've noted a certain amount of bitter admiration of the Bush administration from several of his other implacable critics. However, the left side of our own peanut gallery continues to collectively roll its eyes and froth on cue whenever our not-quite-departed president is mentioned, so at least something is still right in this world.
Were it otherwise I'd start rushing outside to see if angels were arching across the sky.
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As mentioned in the article, this could be problematic for Obama (who I think is almost certain to get the DNC nod now that MI and FL are only allowed to sit at the convention at half-strength) as one of the fundamentals of his campaign is getting us out of Iraq.
So, if it continues to go well then McCain gets to use that as a positive and sell the whole things as a "finishing the job" and portray Obama as one who wants to abandon the Iraqi people at the 11th hour. If Obama drops his anti-war stance prior to the election, he looses support there. Unfortunately for McCain, that support isn't headed his way - but it might mean those folks either don't vote or they vote for a 3rd party, which is half victory at least.
Looking like 4 more years (at least) of Republicans in the White House.
It won't truly be over in Iraq until Iran launches its version of the Tet Offensive. This has not happened yet, and they're probably waiting until Obama can directly challenge McCain over it, after the Democrats' primary is done with.
The media wants another Vietnam, and what the media wants, it gets.
I'm not sure that Iran's going to try that. We do a much better job of being the Great Satan that could attack them, thusly keeping the current group of whack-jobs in power rather than the Great Satan that destroys their capitals and removes them from power. Trust me - they want to stay in power and attacking us won't allow that to continue.
Especially if Petraus keeps the momentum going and starts pulling troops - then Iran would think it best to simply wait a year or two until we're out except for a token force and then go all buck-slutty.
I think Iran is more afraid of the US being under Republican control for four more years than of international opinion turning against it. We've caught Iranian troops invading Iraq in Iraq so many times it's not even funny, but the UN and the international media prefer to pretend it just doesn't happen. The most you actually hear about is the Iranian weapons turning up in Iraq, and you have to either dig really deep or attend a White House press conference in person before you'll even hear anything about that.
If McCain wins, the Iranian theocracy will implode from within before the next US election. Their only hope is a Tet Offensive style attack that sacrifices their own army in exchange for the media spotlight upon the "failure" of Iraq and a president who can force the country back into post-Vietnam isolationism.
It could turn out that way, but with the cycle of violence drawing down and current public opinion, it'd take a direct attack by the Iranian army on actual US targets (be they troops or some sort of directly-supported terrorist attack on our soil) to really get too much going there.
My guess is that if things continue to wind down pretty well that it'll end with a whimper. Iran will continue to talk smack and supply weapons, but if the Iraqi police and military continue to step up to the plate, that'll lose it's effectiveness pretty quickly.
From my perspective, there's just too damned much money sloshing around in petro products. It'll prop up Iran's command economy for the duration, inefficiencies bedamned.
Of course, when the bubble finally bursts, I'm predicting the Mullahs will be turned into gas station decoration right behind Chavez. I sincerely hope Iraq will have had enough time to bank a whole helluva lot of cash and really get their heads around a market economy before then, because, if it plays out like I think, they're going to have an amazing storm tossing various refugees against their shores around that time. They'll definitely need to be diversified before then.
For all their bluster, Iran almost certainly won't initiate an "all out offensive" against our forces in Iraq (and the Iraqis themselves). To do so would be, and they know it, suicidal.
Now whether they step up the sub rosa terror campaign there--with their Shi'a allies or with Al-Qaeda--is another question altogether.
Suffice to say, it'll be very interesting to see how all this interplay goes down as we approach November 4. :-/